全球地表静化
外观
全球地表静化 (英文:Global terrestrial stilling) ,指 1980 年到 2010 年期间,在地球的地表附近观测到的风速下降。[1][2]近地面风速下降主要影响南北半球的中纬度地区。全球平均风速以 -0.140 m/s•dec−1 的速度递减 (即每10年下降0.1米每秒的风速),过去五十年间下降幅度达5%至15%。[3]高纬度地区 (纬度> 75°) 则呈现风速上升趋势。 与陆地表面观测到的风力减弱相反,海洋区域的风力呈现增强趋势。[4][5] 然而,自 2010 年前后开始,风速的下降趋势在部分区域出现了逆转。[2][6][7]
地表静化的真正原因尚无定论,其主要的因素有两个:
由于气候变化,地表静化目前已成为社会关注的潜在问题,因为它不仅会影响到风力发电、农业、水文和生态环境,还与灾害、空气质量和人类健康等众多领域密切相关。
原因
[编辑]地表静化的原因尚无定论。它可能是由于多种因素同时相互作用,且这些因素可能随空间和时间而变化。
科学家指出,影响风速减缓的主要原因包括:
- 地表粗糙度增加(如森林生长、土地利用变化和城市化)。在气象站附近,类似风速计的测量仪器会增强空气流动时遇到的摩擦力,从而导致低层风速进一步减弱。 [8] [9] [10]
- 大气环流在较大尺度上的变化。例如哈德利环流向极地扩张[11] ,以及主导近地面风速变化的反气旋和气旋的漂移。 [12] [13] [14]
- 风速测量方法的变化。比如风速计设备的老化和误差、风速计的技术改进、风速计高度的变化 [15]、测量地点的转移、监测站周围环境的变化、仪器校准时的问题、以及测量时间间隔。 [16]
- “全球暗化”,由于气溶胶和温室气体浓度增加,使得到达地球表面的太阳辐射量减少,大气趋于稳定,导致风力减弱,地表静化。 [17]
影响
[编辑]地表静化现象的影响具有重要的科学、社会经济及环境意义,涉及大气与海洋动力学及诸多相关领域,包括:
然而,就风能而言,近地表风速观测主要集中在离地 10 米范围内,而风力涡轮机通常位于地表以上 60 至 80 米处,因此该领域仍需更多研究。还需在高海拔地区开展更多研究,这些地区通常被称为"水塔",是世界淡水供应的主要来源地。 [24] [25]研究表明,高海拔地区的风速下降速度比低海拔地区记录的变化更为显著 [26]而且,已有几篇中国论文证明了青藏高原的这一情况。 [27]
参见
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