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英國經濟衰退時期列表

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此為影响大不列顛暨北愛爾蘭聯合王國（即英國）及其前身国家经济的衰退（或萧条）時期列表。在英国，經濟衰退通常被定义为连续两个季度出现经济负增长，以经季节性调整后的实际GDP环比数据来衡量[1][2]。

事件 年份 時期 實際GDP跌幅 成因 其他資料及備注
大蕭條 14世紀30至90年代左右 約60年 百年战争和金條大饑荒期間的經濟封鎖
西班牙王位繼承戰爭 1706年 −15%[3] 西班牙王位繼承戰爭 compounded by failure of harvest
1709年霜害 1709年 3個月[4] −14%[3] 因霜害造成的糧食歉收
1772年信貸危機 1772年 1770年孟加拉饑荒
後拿破侖戰爭蕭條 1812年—1821年 約9年[5]
1857–58 recession 1857–58 c. 1 year[6][7] c. 1%[8] 1857年經濟危機 (originating in America) as the first global economic crisis, confidence eroded by Palmerston government relaxing the provisions of the 1844年銀行特許狀法令 Comparatively brief contraction of approximately 3.5%[6] nominal GDP?
1867–1869 recession 1867–1869 c. 2 years[6][7] c. 1%[9] Impact on exports resulting from American recession post-南北战争 1.9%[6] fall in GDP
长期萧条 1873–1896 Periodic falls in real GDP over c. 20 years Deflation but a large rise real GDP 1873年恐慌 Previously known as the "Great Depression". Real GDP rose over this period. Agricultural deflation hit farmers and their workers, although industrial output continued to grow.
1919–1926 depression 1919–1921 c. 3 years
  • 1919 −10.9%
  • 1920 – 6.0%
  • 1921 – 8.1%[10]
  • 9.5%[11]
 The end of 第一次世界大战 通货紧缩 c. 10% in 1921, and c. 14% in 1922.[12]
Great Depression 1930–31 c. 2 years
  • 1930: −0.7%
  • 1931: −5.1%[10]
 大萧条. Reducing demand for UK exports, also high interest rate defending the 金本位. UK came off 金本位 September 1931. 3–5% deflation pa. UK much less affected than US. Took 16 quarters for GDP to recover to that at start of recession[13] after a 經濟衰退曲線.
1956 recession 1956 Q2
1956 Q3		 0.5 years
(2 Qtrs)[14]
  • 1956 Q2: −0.2%
  • 1956 Q3: −0.1%
 Uncompetitive motor industry,[15] inflationary pressures, credit squeeze caused by high bank rate, effects of the Suez crisis – oil embargo by NATO and other Arab countries.[16] Average inflation in 1956 totalled 4.9%.[來源請求] Interest rate held at 5.5%, an increase of 1.0% on the previous year.[來源請求]
1961 recession
  • 1961 Q3
  • 1961 Q4
 0.5 years
(2 Qtrs)[14]
  • 1961 Q3: −0.5%
  • 1961 Q4: −0.2%
 Time lag from the 'Rolling Adjustment' recession in America[17] and high bank rate. Interest rates were hiked from 5.0% to 7.0% in July 1961, reducing to 6.5% in October 1961 and then to 6.0% from November 1961 onwards.[來源請求]
Mid-1970s recessions
  • 1973 Q3
  • 1973 Q4
  • 1974 Q1
 0.75 years
(3 Qtrs)[14]
  • 1973 Q3: −1.0%
  • 1973 Q4: −0.4%
  • 1974 Q1: −2.7%
 第一次石油危机, 停滯性通貨膨脹, the decline of traditional British industries, inefficient production, high inflation caused industrial disputes over pay. The economy surpassed its pre-recession peak by 1976 Q4, fourteen quarters after its beginning.[12][13] There were two single-quarterly setbacks during the recovery (aside from the double-dip) in 1974 Q4 and 1976 Q2. Average inflation was 9.2% in 1973, 16.0% in 1974, 24.2% in 1975 and 16.5% in 1976.[來源請求] Interest rates fluctuated wildly during the recession with a low of 9.0% in March 1976 and a high of 15.0% in October 1976.
  • 1975 Q2
  • 1975 Q3
 0.5 years
(2 Qtrs)[14]
  • 1975 Q2: −1.7%
  • 1975 Q3: −0.3%
Early 1980s recession
  • 1980 Q1
  • 1980 Q2
  • 1980 Q3
  • 1980 Q4
  • 1981 Q1
 1.25 years
(5 Qtr)[14]
  • 1980 Q1: −1.7%
  • 1980 Q2: −2.0%
  • 1980 Q3: −0.2%
  • 1980 Q4: −1.0%
  • 1981 Q1: −0.3%
 Deflationary government policies including spending cuts, pursuance of 货币主义 to reduce inflation, switch from a manufacturing economy to a services economy. Company earnings decline 35%. Unemployment rises from 5.3% of the working population in August 1979 to 11.9% in 1984.[18] Took thirteen quarters for GDP to recover to its pre-recession peak at the end of 1979.[12] Annual inflation was 18.0% in 1980, 11.9% in 1981, 8.6% in 1982 and 4.6% in 1983.[來源請求] Interest rates generally declined during the recession from a peak of 17.0% at the beginning of 1980 to a low of 9.6% in October 1982.[來源請求]
Early 1990s recession
  • 1990 Q3
  • 1990 Q4
  • 1991 Q1
  • 1991 Q2
  • 1991 Q3
 1.25 years
(5 Qtrs)[14]
  • 1990 Q3: −1.1%
  • 1990 Q4: −0.4%
  • 1991 Q1: −0.3%
  • 1991 Q2: −0.2%
  • 1991 Q3: −0.3%
 US savings and loan crisis, high bank rate in response to rising inflation caused by the Lawson Boom and to maintain British membership of the 欧洲汇率机制. Company earnings decline 25%. Peak budget deficit c. 8% of GDP. Unemployment rises from 6.9% of the working population in 1990 to 10.7% in 1993.[18] Took eleven quarters for GDP to recover to its pre-recession peak in the Spring of 1990.[12] Annual inflation was 9.5% in 1990, 5.9% in 1991, 3.7% in 1992. and 1.6% in 1993.[來源請求] Interest rates were stubbornly high initially but declined from a high of 14.8% at the start of the recession to a low of 5.9% by the end of the recession,[來源請求] though interest rates were hiked twice during 黑色星期三.
经济大衰退
  • 2008 Q2
  • 2008 Q3
  • 2008 Q4
  • 2009 Q1
  • 2009 Q2
 1.25 years
(5 Qtrs)
  • 2008 Q2: −0.2%
  • 2008 Q3: −1.7%
  • 2008 Q4: −2.2%
  • 2009 Q1: −1.8%
  • 2009 Q2: −0.3%
 2007年—2008年環球金融危機, rising global commodity prices, 次貸危機 infiltrating the British banking sector, significant 信用紧缩. The recession lasted for five quarters and was the deepest UK recession since the Second World War.[14] Manufacturing output declined 7% by end 2008. It affected many sectors including banks and investment firms, with many well known and established businesses having to fold.[19] The unemployment rate rose to 8.3% (2.68m people) in August 2011, the highest level since 1994. There was much speculation of a 'double dip' recession during the 2010s, but this proved not to be the case. However, the 2010s saw four separate periods of quarter-on-quarter fall in growth: 2010 Q4 (−0.4); 2011 Q4 (−0.1); 2012 Q2 (−0.5); and 2012 Q4 (−0.2).[20]
2019冠状病毒病疫情引发的经济衰退
  • 2020 Q1
  • 2020 Q2
 0.5 years
(2 Qtrs)
  • 2020 Q1: −2.6%
  • 2020 Q2: −18.8%
 2019冠状病毒病疫情 Majority of the decrease in GDP occurred in March and April 2020 and was followed by a sharp increase in June and July although GDP did not return to pre-pandemic levels until late 2021. The drop, while brief, was the deepest recession since 1709.[21] The event triggered an 2021年—2023年通货膨胀飙升 and a wider cost of living crisis.[22]
2023 recession
  • 2023 Q3
  • 2023 Q4
 0.5 years
(2 Qtrs)
  • 2023 Q3: -0.1%
  • 2023 Q4: -0.3%
 A rise in economically inactive people in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, attributed to 2019冠状病毒病英国疫情 levels, and a decline in school attendance which may also be driven by sickness rates.[23] GDP per capita began to fall in Q2 2022, the longest run of falls or stagnation by that metric since 1955. By February 2024 GDP per capita had shrunk by 4.2% compared to its pre- cost of living crisis peak.[24] The growth in population from record-high immigration had offset this decline in the overall GDP statistics in 2022 and early 2023.[22][25]

參見

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參考資料

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  1. ^ Q&A: What is a recession?. BBC News. 2008-07-08. 
  2. ^ Glossary of Treasury terms. HM Treasury. [2012-10-25]. （原始内容存档于2012-11-02）. 
  3. ^ 3.0 3.1 Inman, Phillip. War and the weather: what caused the huge economic slump of 1706?. The Guardian. 2020-05-07 [2020-07-02]. ISSN 0261-3077 （英国英语）. 
  4. ^ What happened in 1709? Why the UK economy slumped into a recession. inews.co.uk. 2020-04-15 [2020-05-15] （英语）. 
  5. ^ Public Spending Chart for United Kingdom 1800–1830 – Central Government Local Authorities. ukpublicspending.co.uk. [2016-08-09]. 
  6. ^ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 Public Spending Chart for United Kingdom 1800–1900 – Central Government Local Authorities. ukpublicspending.co.uk. [2016-08-09]. 
  7. ^ 7.0 7.1 Cain, P. J.; Hopkins, A. G. British Imperialism, 1688–2000. Longman. 2002 [2016-08-09]. ISBN 9780582472860. 
  8. ^ Public Spending Chart for United Kingdom 1856–1859 – Central Government Local Authorities. ukpublicspending.co.uk. [2016-08-09]. 
  9. ^ Public Spending Chart for United Kingdom 1865–1868 – Central Government Local Authorities. ukpublicspending.co.uk. [2016-08-09]. 
  10. ^ 10.0 10.1 D Smith, Sunday Times (UK) 9 November 2008
  11. ^ NIESR graph of 6 UK recessions (PDF). 
  12. ^ 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 Bank of England February 2009 Quarterly inflation report (PDF). Bank of England. [2016-08-09]. （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2009-11-15）. 
  13. ^ 13.0 13.1 Economy tracker: GDP. BBC News. 2015-01-27 [2016-08-09]. 
  14. ^ 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 Quarterly National Accounts – National accounts aggregates (ABMI Gross Domestic Product: chained volume measures: Seasonally adjusted £m, constant prices). Office for National Statistics. 2013-12-20. 
  15. ^ Economic policy and the motor recession. The Spectator. 1956-07-12 [2016-08-09]. 
  16. ^ Love 1969, p. 651
  17. ^ A Review Of Past Recessions | Investopedia. investopedia.com. [2016-08-09]. 
  18. ^ 18.0 18.1 "UK unemployment". Financial Tubes, 20 November 2008
  19. ^ CBI February 2009 Economic forecast (PDF). Confederation of British Industry. [2016-08-09]. （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2011-09-27）. 
  20. ^ UK GDP since 1955 | Business Rogers. The Guardian. 2009-03-09 [2016-08-09]. 
  21. ^ Partington, Richard. UK economy hit by record slump in 2020 but double-dip recession avoided. The Guardian. 2021-02-12. 
  22. ^ 22.0 22.1 The inflationary consequences of real shocks. 
  23. ^ Wallace, Tim; Chan, Szu Ping. How worklessness and school truancy drove Britain into recession. The Telegraph. 2024-02-15. （原始内容存档于2024-02-15）. 
  24. ^ UK falls into recession, and a far deeper living standards downturn • Resolution Foundation. 2024-02-15. 
  25. ^ Migration too high says Sunak, as total hits record level. BBC News. 2023-05-25 （英国英语）. 

外部鏈接

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维基新闻中的相关報導：United Kingdom officially enters economic recession
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